Asian Development Bank: China will remain global No. 1 growth driver

“China is obviously going to still be important for some time to come.  They still account for nearly half of GDP in Asia Pacific,” ADB’s chief economist Albert Park said in a press conference for the bank’s Asian Development Outlook report.

“Although growth is moderating, and we are expecting it to continue moderating in the coming years… it’s likely to contribute the most growth of any economy in the world to global growth,” said Park.

ADB forecasts China to post annual GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, lower than the government’s target of “around 5%.” China’s economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, matching the official target of around 5%.

Even with slower growth, ADB data estimated China will account for 46% of growth in developing Asia in 2024-2025.

China currently accounts for 18% and 48% of global and Asian GDP, respectively, based on purchasing power parities exchange rates, a metric used by the ADB, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

India’s stellar economic trajectory has led many to tout the country’s role as a technology and manufacturing powerhouse and an attractive alternative to China. The South Asian nation’s economy recently expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters, surpassing expectations with 8.4% growth in the October to December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24